Saturday, February 18, 2012

Week Ending 2/17/2012

Before we start, let's bow our heads in remembrance of the Great Bear Slaughter of 2012.

Amen.

No that wasn't a backhanded intermediate term top call.  Don't hold me to it.  My ingenious plan of buying on weakness was done in by its arch nemesis: a run-away bull market.  Luckily, my Plan B of buying a 30-40% core portfolio saved me from outright mortification.  Not only that, it has made me enough money to buy real textbooks next semester rather than going behind the 7-11 to get the International Edition from 1987.

Where to from here?  Let's just plagiarize from my piece from 1/8:

"News flow continue to beat the same drums.  Chronic economic risks are lightening up, but acute black swans seem to perpetually lurk beneath the surface."

 Some Random Thoughts Going Forward

-Yen should continue to weaken vs other currencies.  Eventually I'll be right.
-Treasury yields will begin to increase, Operation Twist or no Twist.  As the economy improves, the primary dealers will have to get rid of its large treasury inventory, lest they start taking huge losses when yields increase.  Yeah it's a Game Theory situation.  No bank wants to be the last one holding the yield risk bag.
-Hang in there my beloved bears!  I have been doing nightly seances channeling the Boy Plunger himself.
-I bet Jeremy Lin can get at least 10 mill if he tries to start his own hedge fund. 

Jam of the Week: