Sunday, January 29, 2012

Week Ending on 1/27/2012

As always, I'm only half right so feel free to replace me with a coin, preferably two sided.  TLT gapped way lower only to end with a big green candle, wiping the stupid smirk off my face.  Nevertheless, my FXI long/DIA short worked, much to  my imaginary haters' chagrin.  GDX prayed to Bernanke and got some well deserved rain.  Confluence with multi-year influence points meant a huge gain for all wanna-be Ron Pauls.  Dollar is once again relegated to unpopular Goth loner status as it broke support with good volume.  Where it goes from here is anybody's guess.  I'm only good for witty banter afterwards. 

It is time for this perma-bear to don my well worn bull horns, at least for the time being.  The cyclical bull market have not ended, much like I noted in way earlier posts and even in the depths of the crisis, I maintained that this was a 1998 moment.  It was fate's way to warn us of our impending doom and like rational homo sapiens, we do not listen.  Thus fate does not feel it is unfair when real crisis hits in a few years.  However, I cannot in good conscience go balls to the wall long and thus have quietly raised my equity exposure from 38.5% to 43%. 

Trade Updates

DIA, full of defensive behemoths that was a Statue of Liberty welcoming all beleaguered  investors middle of last year, are now the ugliest of the three sisters.  I really like this short because a stop is so easy to put above 128.06.  Just be sure it's a mental stop and check it on Friday.  If it busts through with convincing volume and a bullish candle, you know it's time to get out. 

FXI is such a beauty right now.  Technicals meshed with fundamentals with shitty sentiment.  That's a recipe for a rip your face off rally.  (Do I have to mention Josh Brown every time I say that?)  If you are a coward like me, take half off and let the other half ride baby.  It's time for some payback for all those reverse merger frauds.

I cannot take credit for GDX one way or another.  I just said to play accordingly.  That's like going to war and telling your troops to give it your best shot.  I do see further resistance at ~62.7.  This has such good volume that if you are long, I would be inclined to let it ride, but do take some off.  Who do you think you are?  David Einhorn?

UUP you piece of shit.  I should know this would happen with Zimbabwe Ben and Turbo Tax Timmy working behind the scenes to devalue our way out of the malaise.  Further support at ~21.15.  Volume looks believable rather than a fake breakout.  Maybe some more meandering around this line since it's such an important juncture. 

Trade Ideas

I don't have anymore.  They are all right up resistance, but I'm uncomfortable to short with every central bank being "stock friendly."  No good place to put stops and targets either, at least on my timeframe. 

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