Monday, August 1, 2011

I survived the Debt Ceiling Impasse of 2011!

Debt ceiling is done!  Honestly, I didn't even read the damn thing after everybody in Congress held hands and said it was a great day for America.  I didn't need to.  Ron Paul was pissed, Obama was nowhere to be seen and I read some blogs where apparently they read it and summarized it for me (suckers!).  Like everybody predicted, Congress and President Obama pulled something together at the last minute to avoid somehow defaulting in a currency we can print more of. In other news, the Chuck Norris of world leaders, Putin, called America a parasite on the world economy.  Obama was later seen with Timmy Geithner coming up with Russian alcoholism jokes.

After a widely predicted 1.5% gap up in the markets, some real news came out that had something to do with the economy slowing down and apparently that shit matters now that QE2 ended and we went from +1.5% to -1.5% in about 10 minutes.  Using proprietary momentum indicators (perusing a shitload of blogs), the consensus is a new bear market as we are currently in a topping process analogous to 2007.  There is also a ridiculously life-like head and shoulders pattern on all the index charts (with confirming volume!). 

So what's an investor to do?  Nothing you dumb fuck.  Why would you listen to me?  If you follow any of my advice, you deserve to lose all of your money.  Ok fine, here's my deal: bear markets rarely start off on bad news.  The top is made when everybody is invested and there's no more buyers left.  Does this sound like such an environment?  If anything, everyone is underinvested waiting for the DC retardation to blow over.  How can we ignore all the bad economic data?  The truth is, there's always bad macro data.  If you read zerohedge from '09-'11 you would've shorted the market whole way through and you would be reading this at an internet cafe cause your dumb ass would've lost your house.  The important thing is sentiment--how traders react to the data.  I think a lot of people missed the train on the earlier (and easier) bull and is hellbent on catching this dip.  Bad econ data be damned.  When is it time to sell?  I'll let you know, I swear.