Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Why Everything Can Turn Out OK in America

Sorry doomsdayers, there will be no revolution in America, ironically because everyone will be watching TV.  Here's why:

First, let me list the reasons why people think America's going into the shitter:

1. Debt Ceiling Impasse Drama of 2011/High debt in general
2. High chronic unemployment, especially among the young
3. Burgeoning gap of wealth/income between haves and have-nots
4. Crony capitalism where the political elite/capitalist class (Marx style) are inseparable
5. Crumbling infrastructure
6. Dual justice system where those with power and influence will only feel the gentle embrace of the law
7. Arthritic GDP growth, even with trillions of "liquidity injection" by the FED
8. Most of the GDP comes from finance-related industries, which bring nothing of value to society.

Here's why none of it matters: if America does default, it will be a selective default brought on by political grandstanding rather than financial reasons.  When Obama said America's government should balance its budget, much like an American family, I threw my speakers out the window.  First of all, American families don't have a giant fucking printing press/magic computer where they can credit their checking accounts.  America does.  Second of all, the American family hasn't balanced his checkbook in decades so Obama, you so crazy. 

I don't think it will ever get that far.  They will cut some bullshit programs that's probably bloated in the first place and raise the limit a bit so everyone can save face and tell his constituents that he flushed his opponent's face in the toilet.  Eventually, the recovery will continue, kinda like the father's hand on his son's first bicycle ride.  The mindfuck thing is this can continue in perpetuity: the father will never let the bicycle go.  At any sign of trouble, the gubment will inject liquidity and any bad loans/derivatives will get replaced by Benjamins.  This will probably lead to some kind of inflation, but the Fed can just raise rates any time it gets out of control. 

As for the social issues, they are really just first-world problems.  Obama probably got his Herbert Hoover powerpoint presentation where there's a slide that goes "Don't be that guy."  Keep the entitlement programs flowing so people don't go all bonus army on you.  The internet will keep complaining about the inequality, while the middle class will be too busy working and the lower class will be too busy buying shit they don't need with the government's money.  Fuck yeah Keynes!

All of these reasons are why the dollar has been on a downward spiral for a while now (funny how the markets are always the first ones to figure it out), but the dollar will never be worthless, like some think.  There will always be a place for fiat currency, although precious metals will almost certainly outperform as people need to park their fiat somewhere.  Biggest reason for dollar's continued dominance is the shitty nature of the euro, and that's also why China's desperate in propping it up.  Bernanke knows he can pump as much dollars as he wants since there's really no alternatives in the forex market.  And in this time of uncertainty, people are going to rush into treasuries, gold, and swiss francs.  But when push comes to shove, everyone wants to hold treasuries and especially as this Euro unravels in the next 6 months-???,  treasuries (and the dollar) will remain king.

TL; DR: The government is the father with his hand on his kid's(America) bike.  The government is never going to let go and it doesn't have to.  Keep pumping liquidity, keep sending out checks to more and more of the population.  Inflation won't get out of hand because America's just pumping air into the balloon at the same rate as it's eeking out.  Also, the rest of the world devolves into turmoil, especially in Europe, which is great for the treasury and the dollar.